Mansei has been profitable 19 of the last 20 years. They're a technology trading company specializing in electrical machinery, industrial systems, electronic devices, and facility equipment
Nice finding. Thanks for that. Just adding some information. The 150.000 'other' shares were sold by Mitshubishi Electric Corporation. They held 500.000 shares and reduced their position tot 350.000 shares on nov 6th. Other interesting point is that the CEO holds 6% and other insiders all together also 6%. The fact that the massive buyback is a first time event could indicate that this could be done again in the future. Japanes government is stimulating to give back cash to shareholders or to raise their RoE by other means.
Mansei announced today the 29% of shares bought back are being cancelled. This doesn't normally change anything, but I rarely see treasury stock cancelled in Japan amongst small caps, so this is interesting 👀
Merhaba, nice write-up. I looked through the filings but there is no mention of “cancellation” of these shares they bought back. Do you know if they intend to cancel them soon or just hold in treasury and perhaps sell again if they need cash (seen this before in France). Thanks
I prefer EV / EBIT and think it is a bit better fundamental ratio than P/E. EV / EBIT is a multiple based on a total capital basis, where cash and debt is also taken into account. Some studies show that P/E has almost no predictive power for the stock price. see here: https://scholarworks.uni.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1140&context=mtie
Here is the problem with "cheap" Japanese companies: based on your projected earnings and projected book value, they will earn ~6.4% return on equity. The stock is trading at a P/B of 0.5x. While that P/B might seem cheap, it's not a slam dunk based on that ROE. In other words, it's trading at a P/B of 0.5x for a reason.
RoE s a great metric when used correctly, but doesn't really work when used on over capitalized companies. Applying it the way you do here doesn't even pass the sniff test of absurdity.
If Mansei today took 7b yen and their investment securities and literally threw it in the ocean, return on equity will all of a sudden look a lot better, doubling overnight! Better yet. They can take on 5b yen in debt and throw it in the ocean too and enjoy another big bump in RoE!
Mansei's biz doesn't require the huge amount of excess cash that company holds. It just holds it due to the jp culture of excess conservatism, and this is slowly starting to change.
Lastly, 6.4% RoE isn't even that bad in an environment where the risk free policy rate is 0.25%. Comparing it to US RoE doesn't make sense. Plenty of poor RoE stories exist in Japan. I own some of them based on asset values, such as Sonocom. It's over capitalized, but even adjusting for that, the business sucks.
If as you say they took their cash investment and thew them in the ocean or if they paid a dividend for that amount, ROE will increase, but so will P/B, so it won’t change the relative attractiveness of the valuation.
You can do the calculation yourself, but let’s say without the cash they had a ROE of 13% and traded at 1.0x P/B. Not bad, cheaper than the market, but again, not a slam dunk.
Since the stock is tading at more or less 0,5x BV a 6,4% RoE means you have a yield on your investment of double, thus 12,8% (with the same cash position). Buying back more shares on the open market would drive the price of the shares up since liquidity is limited. I would like to see another buy back programm.
So if I read it correctly: It appears that most of the shares purchased came from institutions that were not actively trading, effectively reducing the supply of shares by only 150,000 that did not come from institutions.
Nice finding. Thanks for that. Just adding some information. The 150.000 'other' shares were sold by Mitshubishi Electric Corporation. They held 500.000 shares and reduced their position tot 350.000 shares on nov 6th. Other interesting point is that the CEO holds 6% and other insiders all together also 6%. The fact that the massive buyback is a first time event could indicate that this could be done again in the future. Japanes government is stimulating to give back cash to shareholders or to raise their RoE by other means.
Mansei announced today the 29% of shares bought back are being cancelled. This doesn't normally change anything, but I rarely see treasury stock cancelled in Japan amongst small caps, so this is interesting 👀
Hi AltayCap,
Merhaba, nice write-up. I looked through the filings but there is no mention of “cancellation” of these shares they bought back. Do you know if they intend to cancel them soon or just hold in treasury and perhaps sell again if they need cash (seen this before in France). Thanks
Most jp companies never outright cancel treasury stock. Though some began doing it.
I prefer EV / EBIT and think it is a bit better fundamental ratio than P/E. EV / EBIT is a multiple based on a total capital basis, where cash and debt is also taken into account. Some studies show that P/E has almost no predictive power for the stock price. see here: https://scholarworks.uni.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1140&context=mtie
Does this company play into the data center boom in anyway given they are in electric machinary?
Here is the problem with "cheap" Japanese companies: based on your projected earnings and projected book value, they will earn ~6.4% return on equity. The stock is trading at a P/B of 0.5x. While that P/B might seem cheap, it's not a slam dunk based on that ROE. In other words, it's trading at a P/B of 0.5x for a reason.
RoE s a great metric when used correctly, but doesn't really work when used on over capitalized companies. Applying it the way you do here doesn't even pass the sniff test of absurdity.
If Mansei today took 7b yen and their investment securities and literally threw it in the ocean, return on equity will all of a sudden look a lot better, doubling overnight! Better yet. They can take on 5b yen in debt and throw it in the ocean too and enjoy another big bump in RoE!
Mansei's biz doesn't require the huge amount of excess cash that company holds. It just holds it due to the jp culture of excess conservatism, and this is slowly starting to change.
Lastly, 6.4% RoE isn't even that bad in an environment where the risk free policy rate is 0.25%. Comparing it to US RoE doesn't make sense. Plenty of poor RoE stories exist in Japan. I own some of them based on asset values, such as Sonocom. It's over capitalized, but even adjusting for that, the business sucks.
If as you say they took their cash investment and thew them in the ocean or if they paid a dividend for that amount, ROE will increase, but so will P/B, so it won’t change the relative attractiveness of the valuation.
You can do the calculation yourself, but let’s say without the cash they had a ROE of 13% and traded at 1.0x P/B. Not bad, cheaper than the market, but again, not a slam dunk.
What are the slam dunks currently?
Since the stock is tading at more or less 0,5x BV a 6,4% RoE means you have a yield on your investment of double, thus 12,8% (with the same cash position). Buying back more shares on the open market would drive the price of the shares up since liquidity is limited. I would like to see another buy back programm.
So if I read it correctly: It appears that most of the shares purchased came from institutions that were not actively trading, effectively reducing the supply of shares by only 150,000 that did not come from institutions.
Correct, but shares repurchased from institutions and others create value for shareholders too. It's all extremely accretive.